Updating ESA's Earth System Model for Gravity Mission Simulation Studies: 3. A Realistically Perturbed Non-Tidal Atmosphere and Ocean De-Aliasing Model

The ability of any satellite gravity mission concept to monitor mass transport processes in the Earth system is typically tested well ahead of its implementation by means of various simulation studies. Those studies often extend from the simulation of realistic orbits and instrumental data all the way down to the retrieval of global gravity field solution time-series. Basic requirement for all these simulations are realistic representations of the spatio-temporal mass variability in the different sub-systems of the Earth, as a source model for the orbit computations. For such simulations, a suitable source model is required to represent (i) high-frequency (i.e., sub-daily to weekly) mass variability in the atmosphere and oceans, in order to realistically include the effects of temporal aliasing due to non-tidal high-frequency mass variability into the retrieved gravity fields. In parallel, (ii) low-frequency (i.e., monthly to interannual) variability needs to be modelled with realistic amplitudes, particularly at small spatial scales, in order to assess to what extent a new mission concept might provide further insight into physical processes currently not observable. The new source model documented here attempts to fulfil both requirements: Based on ECMWF’s recent atmospheric reanalysis ERA-Interim and corresponding simulations from numerical models of the other Earth system components, it offers spherical harmonic coefficients of the time-variable global gravity field due to mass variability in atmosphere, oceans, the terrestrial hydrosphere including the ice-sheets and glaciers, as well as the solid Earth. Simulated features range from sub-daily to multiyear periods with a spatial resolution of spherical harmonics degree and order 180 over a period of 12 years. In addition to the source model, a de-aliasing model for atmospheric and oceanic high-frequency variability with augmented systematic and random noise is required for a realistic simulation of the gravity field retrieval process, whose necessary error characteristics are discussed. The documentation is organized as follows: The characteristics of the updated ESM along with some basic validation are presented in Volume 1 of this report (Dobslaw et al., 2014). A detailed comparison to the original ESA ESM (Gruber et al., 2011) is provided in Volume 2 (Bergmann-Wolf et al., 2014), while Volume 3 (Forootan et al., 2014) contains a description of the strategy to derive a realistically noisy de-aliasing model for the high-frequency mass variability in atmosphere and oceans. The files of the updated ESA Earth System Model for gravity mission simulation studies are accessible at DOI:10.5880/GFZ.1.3.2014.001

Updating ESA's Earth System Model for gravity mission simulation studies: 1. Model description and validation

The ability of any satellite gravity mission concept to monitor mass transport processes in the Earth system is typically tested well ahead of its implementation by means of various simulation studies. Those studies often extend from the simulation of realistic orbits and instrumental data all the way down to the retrieval of global gravity field solution time-series. Basic requirement for all these simulations are realistic representations of the spatio-temporal mass variability in the different sub-systems of the Earth, as a source model for the orbit computations. For such simulations, a suitable source model is required to represent (i) high-frequency (i.e., subdaily to weekly) mass variability in the atmosphere and oceans, in order to realistically include the effects of temporal aliasing due to non-tidal high-frequency mass variability into the retrieved gravity fields. In parallel, (ii) low-frequency (i.e., monthly to interannual) variability needs to be modelled with realistic amplitudes, particularly at small spatial scales, in order to assess to what extent a new mission concept might provide further insight into physical processes currently not observable. The new source model documented here attempts to fulfil both requirements: Based on ECMWF’s recent atmospheric reanalysis ERA-Interim and corresponding simulations from numerical models of the other Earth system components, it offers spherical harmonic coefficients of the time-variable global gravity field due to mass variability in atmosphere, oceans, the terrestrial hydrosphere including the ice-sheets and glaciers, as well as the solid Earth. Simulated features range from sub-daily to multiyear periods with a spatial resolution of spherical harmonics degree and order 180 over a period of 12 years. In addition to the source model, a de-aliasing model for atmospheric and oceanic high-frequency variability with augmented systematic and random noise is required for a realistic simulation of the gravity field retrieval process, whose necessary error characteristics are discussed. The documentation of the updated ESA Earth System Model (updated ESM) for gravity mission simulation studies is organized as follows: The characteristics of the updated ESM along with some basic validation is presented in Volume 1. A detailed comparison to the original ESA ESM (Gruber et al., 2011) is provided in Volume 2, while Volume 3 contains the description of a strategy to derive realistic errors for the de-aliasing model of high-frequency mass variability in atmosphere and ocean

Evolution of Global Ocean Tide Levels Since the Last Glacial Maximum

This study addresses the evolution of global tidal dynamics since the Last Glacial Maximum focusing on the extraction of tidal levels that are vital for the interpretation of geologic sea-level markers. For this purpose, we employ a truly-global barotropic ocean tide model which considers the non-local effect of Self-Attraction and Loading. A comparison to a global tide gauge data set for modern conditions yields agreement levels of 65%–70%. As the chosen model is data-unconstrained, and the considered dissipation mechanisms are well understood, it does not have to be re-tuned for altered paleoceanographic conditions. In agreement with prior studies, we find that changes in bathymetry during glaciation and deglaciation do exert critical control over the modeling results with minor impact by ocean stratification and sea ice friction. Simulations of 4 major partial tides are repeated in time steps of 0.5–1 ka and augmented by 4 additional partial tides estimated via linear admittance. These are then used to derive time series from which the tidal levels are determined and provided as a global data set conforming to the HOLSEA format. The modeling results indicate a strengthened tidal resonance by M2, but also by O1, under glacial conditions, in accordance with prior studies. Especially, a number of prominent changes in local resonance conditions are identified, that impact the tidal levels up to several meters difference. Among other regions, resonant features are predicted for the North Atlantic, the South China Sea, and the Arctic Ocean

Updating ESA's Earth System Model for gravity mission simulation studies: 2. Comparison with the original model

The ability of any satellite gravity mission concept to monitor mass transport processes in the Earth system is typically tested well ahead of its implementation by means of various simulation studies. Those studies often extend from the simulation of realistic orbits and instrumental data all the way down to the retrieval of global gravity field solution time-series. Basic requirement for all these simulations are realistic representations of the spatio-temporal mass variability in the different sub-systems of the Earth, as a source model for the orbit computations. For such simulations, a suitable source model is required to represent (i) high-frequency (i.e., sub-daily to weekly) mass variability in the atmosphere and oceans, in order to realistically include the effects of temporal aliasing due to non-tidal high-frequency mass variability into the retrieved gravity fields. In parallel, (ii) low-frequency (i.e., monthly to interannual) variability needs to be modelled with realistic amplitudes, particularly at small spatial scales, in order to assess to what extent a new mission concept might provide further insight into physical processes currently not observable. The new source model documented here attempts to fulfil both requirements: Based on ECMWF’s recent atmospheric reanalysis ERA-Interim and corresponding simulations from numerical models of the other Earth system components, it offers spherical harmonic coefficients of the time-variable global gravity field due to mass variability in atmosphere, oceans, the terrestrial hydrosphere including the ice-sheets and glaciers, as well as the solid Earth. Simulated features range from sub-daily to multiyear periods with a spatial resolution of spherical harmonics degree and order 180 over a period of 12 years. In addition to the source model, a de-aliasing model for atmospheric and oceanic high-frequency variability with augmented systematic and random noise is required for a realistic simulation of the gravity field retrieval process, whose necessary error characteristics are discussed. The documentation is organized as follows: The characteristics of the updated ESM along with some basic validation are presented in Volume 1 of this report (Dobslaw et al., 2014). A detailed comparison to the original ESA ESM (Gruber et al., 2011) is provided in Volume 2 (Bergmann-Wolf et al., 2014), while Volume 3 (Forootan et al., 2014) contains a description of the strategy to derive a realistically noisy de-aliasing model for the high-frequency mass variability in atmosphere and oceans. The files of the updated ESA Earth System Model for gravity mission simulation studies are accessible at DOI:10.5880/GFZ.1.3.2014.001

Altimetry, gravimetry, GPS and viscoelastic modeling data for the joint inversion for glacial isostatic adjustment in Antarctica (ESA STSE Project REGINA)

The poorly known correction for the ongoing deformation of the solid Earth caused by glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) is a major uncertainty in determining the mass balance of the Antarctic ice sheet from measurements of satellite gravimetry and to a lesser extent satellite altimetry. In the past decade, much progress has been made in consistently modeling ice sheet and solid Earth interactions; however, forward-modeling solutions of GIA in Antarctica remain uncertain due to the sparsity of constraints on the ice sheet evolution, as well as the Earth's rheological properties. An alternative approach towards estimating GIA is the joint inversion of multiple satellite data – namely, satellite gravimetry, satellite altimetry and GPS, which reflect, with different sensitivities, trends in recent glacial changes and GIA. Crucial to the success of this approach is the accuracy of the space-geodetic data sets. Here, we present reprocessed rates of surface-ice elevation change (Envisat/Ice, Cloud,and land Elevation Satellite, ICESat; 2003–2009), gravity field change (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment, GRACE; 2003–2009) and bedrock uplift (GPS; 1995–2013). The data analysis is complemented by the forward modeling of viscoelastic response functions to disc load forcing, allowing us to relate GIA-induced surface displacements with gravity changes for different rheological parameters of the solid Earth. The data and modeling results presented here are available in the PANGAEA database (https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.875745). The data sets are the input streams for the joint inversion estimate of present-day ice-mass change and GIA, focusing on Antarctica. However, the methods, code and data provided in this paper can be used to solve other problems, such as volume balances of the Antarctic ice sheet, or can be applied to other geographical regions in the case of the viscoelastic response functions. This paper presents the first of two contributions summarizing the work carried out within a European Space Agency funded study: Regional glacial isostatic adjustment and CryoSat elevation rate corrections in Antarctica (REGINA)

Palaeo-sea-level and palaeo-ice-sheet databases: Problems, strategies, and perspectives

Sea-level and ice-sheet databases have driven numerous advances in understanding the Earth system. We describe the challenges and offer best strategies that can be adopted to build self-consistent and standardised databases of geological and geochemical information used to archive palaeo-sea-levels and palaeo-ice-sheets. There are three phases in the development of a database: (i) measurement, (ii) interpretation, and (iii) database creation. Measurement should include the objective description of the position and age of a sample, description of associated geological features, and quantification of uncertainties. Interpretation of the sample may have a subjective component, but it should always include uncertainties and alternative or contrasting interpretations, with any exclusion of existing interpretations requiring a full justification. During the creation of a database, an approach based on accessibility, transparency, trust, availability, continuity, completeness, and communication of content (ATTAC3) must be adopted. It is essential to consider the community that creates and benefits from a database. We conclude that funding agencies should not only consider the creation of original data in specific research-question-oriented projects, but also include the possibility of using part of the funding for IT-related and database creation tasks, which are essential to guarantee accessibility and maintenance of the collected data

Exploring the drivers of global and local sea-level change over the 21st century and beyond

We present a new set of global and local sea-level projections at example tide gauge locations under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emissions scenarios. Compared to the CMIP5-based sealevel projections presented in IPCC AR5, we introduce a number of methodological innovations, including: (i) more comprehensive treatment of uncertainties; (ii) direct traceability between global and local projections; (iii) exploratory extended projections to 2300 based on emulation of individual CMIP5 models. Combining the projections with observed tide gauge records, we explore the contribution to total variance that arises from sea-level variability, different emissions scenarios and model uncertainty. For the period out to 2300 we further breakdown the model uncertainty by sea-level component and consider the dependence on geographic location, time horizon and emissions scenario. Our analysis highlights the importance of variability for sea-level change in the coming decades and the potential value of annual-to-decadal predictions of local sea-level change. Projections to 2300 show a substantial degree of committed sea-level rise under all emissions scenarios considered and highlights the reduced future risk associated with RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 compared to RCP8.5. Tide gauge locations can show large (> 50%) departures from the global average, in some cases even reversing the sign of the change. While uncertainty in projections of the future Antarctic ice dynamic response tends to dominate post2100, we see a substantial differences in the breakdown of model variance as a function of location, timescale and emissions scenario

Prospective Newborn Screening for SCID in Germany: A First Analysis by the Pediatric Immunology Working Group (API)

Background: T-cell receptor excision circle (TREC)-based newborn screening (NBS) for severe combined immunodeficiencies (SCID) was introduced in Germany in August 2019. / Methods: Children with abnormal TREC-NBS were referred to a newly established network of Combined Immunodeficiency (CID) Clinics and Centers. The Working Group for Pediatric Immunology (API) and German Society for Newborn Screening (DGNS) performed 6-monthly surveys to assess the TREC-NBS process after 2.5 years. / Results: Among 1.9 million screened newborns, 88 patients with congenital T-cell lymphocytopenia were identified (25 SCID, 17 leaky SCID/Omenn syndrome (OS)/idiopathic T-cell lymphocytopenia, and 46 syndromic disorders). A genetic diagnosis was established in 88%. Twenty-six patients underwent hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT), 23/26 within 4 months of life. Of these, 25/26 (96%) were alive at last follow-up. Two patients presented with in utero onset OS and died after birth. Five patients with syndromic disorders underwent thymus transplantation. Eight syndromic patients deceased, all from non-immunological complications. TREC-NBS missed one patient, who later presented clinically, and one tracking failure occurred after an inconclusive screening result. / Conclusion: The German TREC-NBS represents the largest European SCID screening at this point. The incidence of SCID/leaky SCID/OS in Germany is approximately 1:54,000, very similar to previous observations from North American and European regions and countries where TREC-NBS was implemented. The newly founded API-CID network facilitates tracking and treatment of identified patients. Short-term HSCT outcome was excellent, but NBS and transplant registries will remain essential to evaluate the long-term outcome and to compare results across the rising numbers of TREC-NBS programs across Europe

Synonymous GATA2 mutations result in selective loss of mutated RNA and are common in patients with GATA2 deficiency

Deficiency of the transcription factor GATA2 is a highly penetrant genetic disorder predisposing to myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) and immunodeficiency. It has been recognized as the most common cause underlying primary MDS in children. Triggered by the discovery of a recurrent synonymousGATA2variant, we systematically investigated 911 patients with phenotype of pediatric MDS or cellular deficiencies for the presence of synonymous alterations inGATA2. In total, we identified nine individuals with five heterozygous synonymous mutations: c.351C>G, p.T117T (N = 4); c.649C>T, p.L217L; c.981G>A, p.G327G; c.1023C>T, p.A341A; and c.1416G>A, p.P472P (N = 2). They accounted for 8.2% (9/110) of cases with GATA2 deficiency in our cohort and resulted in selective loss of mutant RNA. While for the hotspot mutation (c.351C>G) a splicing error leading to RNA and protein reduction was identified, severe, likely late stage RNA loss without splicing disruption was found for other mutations. Finally, the synonymous mutations did not alter protein function or stability. In summary, synonymousGATA2substitutions are a new common cause of GATA2 deficiency. These findings have broad implications for genetic counseling and pathogenic variant discovery in Mendelian disorders

Synonymous GATA2 mutations result in selective loss of mutated RNA and are common in patients with GATA2 deficiency

Deficiency of the transcription factor GATA2 is a highly penetrant genetic disorder predisposing to myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) and immunodeficiency. It has been recognized as the most common cause underlying primary MDS in children. Triggered by the discovery of a recurrent synonymous GATA2 variant, we systematically investigated 911 patients with phenotype of pediatric MDS or cellular deficiencies for the presence of synonymous alterations in GATA2. In total, we identified nine individuals with five heterozygous synonymous mutations: c.351C>G, p.T117T (N = 4); c.649C>T, p.L217L; c.981G>A, p.G327G; c.1023C>T, p.A341A; and c.1416G>A, p.P472P (N = 2). They accounted for 8.2% (9/110) of cases with GATA2 deficiency in our cohort and resulted in selective loss of mutant RNA. While for the hotspot mutation (c.351C>G) a splicing error leading to RNA and protein reduction was identified, severe, likely late stage RNA loss without splicing disruption was found for other mutations. Finally, the synonymous mutations did not alter protein function or stability. In summary, synonymous GATA2 substitutions are a new common cause of GATA2 deficiency. These findings have broad implications for genetic counseling and pathogenic variant discovery in Mendelian disorders